Ecos de sociedad anónima

Archive for the category ‘Uncategorized’

Everything is supposedly false


21122011RJ6 tn496x329

Mr. Rajoy in the Moncloa (Source: www,

After the “close rows” of Cospedal, I expected something to change in the attitude of politicians in this country. And I sincerely thought that Mr. Rajoy would appear at a press conference, with question time included, and he would say: “I’m sorry. I have made a mistake. It will not happen again:”

At the same time, he could have explained that until 2008 there were irregular practices in the financing of his party and that he firmly imposed the “clean slate” with the authority of Mrs. Cospedal at the helm. Then, I would say that since then there has been no “corrupt” practice and that any contrary information is false “from all falsehood”, as Mr. Zapatero would say. Of course, I should announce that I would have asked some collaborators to leave the ranks of the PP, thanking them for the services provided (4, 5 or more). Next, announce the presentation of several bills to fight corruption and regulate the financing of parties, etc. Finally, he would announce that soon he will present the opportune demands against those in law that could correspond, … But of course to do this, we must have them well placed and, above all, possess an overwhelming security.

But no, he denied the major and spoke in the present so as not to lie about the past. What a mess! Now many members of the PP, that if they appear in the lists, will continue pointing out that it is true theirs. Those who never perceived anything will demand explanations from Mr. Rajoy and may provoke a schism within the party, and in the process weaken the image of Spain abroad.

And all this assuming that the papers are true and that no one has laid a death trap on anyone, including any means.

Tags: Bárcenas, rajoy | Stored in: Politics, Uncategorized

Everything depends on how things are said

Today, with both Bárcenas, Cospedal, etc. I feel overwhelmed by the difficulty in understanding what they say. And it does not help at all the misuse of words and memory, so frequent in politicians. Politicians do not even know how to talk. They use words whose meaning surely does not coincide with what they want to say, although perhaps with what they think. And the memory betrays them, by saying things that contradict what they have said a few minutes before.

Hours after Mrs. Cospedal’s press conference, they sent me a video, which has nothing to do with the politicians’ nonsense, but on a day like today puts a romantic and tender note on some aspects of life. , and the correct use of words.

Can you imagine that nobody had lent money to Spanish banks?

I do not. If that had happened, some entities would enter a “coma” and nobody could “rescue” them. To understand the matter well, damaged entities have 3 main problems. The first is the lack of liquidity, not solvency. The second is that of assets valued well above what the market would pay today for them. The third, some loans and credits (mainly promoters) that will hardly be returned.

Without liquidity a bank can not lend. If the assets (executed from unpaid loans) continue to be valued downwards, there may come a time when these assets are so despised that the solvency of the entities also breaks down. If the promoters do not pay their loans, they will have to be executed and, again, the number of toxic assets will grow. And start again!

So you’d better be injected with fresh money and be able to liquidate your bad assets and re-lend.

Let’s see if they do not go back to the old ways: to finance speculative sectors! In passing, I hope that a “clean” of suckers bankers unable to understand the difference between liquidity, solvency and risk.

Stored in: Economy, Europe, Finance, Markets, Politics, Uncategorized

The General Budgets of the State, recently presented by the Government, are probably what Spain needs in order to meet the demands of our Eurogroup partners. And this is so because they hope that with the measures of cost containment and greater fiscal exaction the much vaunted 5.3% public deficit over GDP will be achieved in 2012 and, then, “only” will be left at 3% for 2013

Is that important for the “markets”? Partly yes, for European politicians and bureaucrats to be satisfied is good, as it reassures analysts of banks that deal with sovereign debt, as he explained in a previous post.

But what investors (“markets”) really care about is that they get the loan back.

And in this, the public debt is not the problem, nor the reduction of the deficit is the solution. The real problem is the private debt that reached 292% of GDP at the end of the second quarter of 2011. Of this large percentage, 134% corresponded to corporate debt, 76% to debt of financial institutions and 82% to debt of households (persons ). If we add to this private debt the public debt (71%), it turns out that the total Spanish debt amounted to 363% of GDP. There is nothing! Of the highest of the G-20, below Japan and the United Kingdom (both above 500% of GDP), and almost at the level of France and Italy (346% and 314%, respectively).

McKinsey Global Institute: Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth. January 2012

What the markets value is the probability that they will not be returned. The interest rate represents the cost of money plus the profit margin plus the risk associated with not recovering the loan. When the risk premium goes up, as has happened these days, investors are anticipating that they may not charge everything they borrow.

And why does the risk premium go up these days? Is it for the General Budgets of the State? Directly, I do not believe it. Rather, I think it is because, with these Budgetary Savings Budgets, the macroeconomic picture worsens in the short term and there is no short or medium term economic growth. And if there is no economic growth (consumption), companies’ sales decrease, their profits fall, they do not hire [or dismiss workers], and they have difficulties in repaying their debts. And if this happens, the State collects less taxes [on corporate profits or on the income of natural persons] and must cut expenses so as not to generate more public deficit (which it must borrow), and it has difficulties to justify that it will be able to pay his debt [the public].

So the markets [and I, too] want to be explained now how the economy is going to grow in the medium term, and press for them to be told [and convince]. Their way of pressing is by raising the price of the money they are willing to lend.

And if while explaining how we are going to grow, political leaders (Sarkozy), bureaucrats, the PSOE (with very little credibility now) or similar or out-of-date media add fuel to the fire, as the markets [investors] doubt more and They increase the price of your product: money.

This is the question, and not what the country or the world explain in an interesting way!


Stored in: Economy, Europe, Finance, Markets, Politics, Uncategorized

The bank neither lives nor lets live

We ended 2011 disappointed and we started 2012 distressed.

In Spain, public debt reached 68.5% of GDP at the end of 2011, after growing by 17.3% since 2010 (click here). It is the highest percentage for 17 years. But the truth is that it is a fairly acceptable percentage if we compare ourselves with other countries in the world similar to ours. However, what it indicates is a bad trend for the future if we fail to reduce the public deficit, which reached 8.5% of GDP. This last figure is the one that most influences the cost of the debt, due to its effect on the risk premium, in addition to the grotesque unemployment figure.

Hence the inevitable need to reduce this deficit. The “experts” now say that the dilemma is in its impact on growth. For me that is not the issue, because what is involved is to create a sustainable economic environment, which necessarily involves reducing this deficit and achieving a public debt that can be assumed in the long term. And if you do not look at Greece! Therefore, what concerns me is the nature of this public deficit. How much comes from structural spending and how much of current expenditure? And I dread to think that I do not know, although I try to study the public figures, but this data does not appear. I am afraid that this is because the public data are handled by the parties for their own interests and not by those of their fellow citizens. Anyway, as usual!

As for economic growth, this will come when the desmadre of public spending stabilizes (click here), the economy has been deleveraged and credit again flows. Indeed, our main problem is the total debt of the system, which reached almost 350% of GDP in 2011, a percentage that only the United Kingdom and Japan exceed. And this is what you have to reduce. And who has this phenomenal debt, apart from the State (68.5%), as the private sector: banks, individuals and companies. If we add to this that most of them are banks and that they have toxic assets (loans and unpaid or unpayable loans), we understand that in Spain the big problem is in banking: that does not lend, that neither lives nor leaves live!

The European Central Bank has begun to help the system by lending to the entities huge amounts at 1% interest, to refinance and to finance their states at 4.5% interest. With the first they improve their balance sheets and with the second their profit and loss accounts and, therefore, their assets. But for many this is not enough and they have to merge to guarantee their solvency.

So: Are we on the right track? Theoretically, yes, and in practice I do not know. If the system is not rationalized through mergers, we will have a “zombie” bank that will not live without letting us live. But if they do, we will begin to see the fruits of deleveraging. The money will flow to companies and individuals, increase investment and consumption, and we will grow.

But everything now lies in the speed of reaction of the financial system and that the young gentlemen of the bank do their homework. But that in Spain banking is a political issue. So I do not know!

Stored in: Uncategorized

So that there are buds, before you have to water!

In my previous post I tried to explain why Rajoy has taken the first steps he took. However, he has not wanted to answer my final question.

Cutting the deficit is not incompatible with encouraging measures to support growth, even if Ms Merkel insists on the opposite and aspires to dominate the southern peripheral countries through fiscal intervention. At least, in this we have come out winning because in the twentieth century the Germans were determined to conquer us by brute force. The structural reforms are sure to come in handy, although it is imperative to make sure that the companies, especially the big ones that have cash, will not use the labor reform to replace “expensive to dismiss” labor for cheaper in the future.

But this is not the important thing, the important thing is to generate an impulse for our GDP to grow again. It’s hard? I do not think so, although it requires dedication and vision. The Government does not lack the first thing. Of the second I’m not so sure, but there are some ideas, in case it helps.

GDP has several components: private demand, public demand, gross fixed capital formation and trade balance.

– Private demand will not increase until families’ income increases, but above all until confidence is restored, eliminating uncertainties.

– The public demand: better not to increase, since we have seen what wasteful are the regional governments and the State, the PSOE and the PP. Now we have played a role, and it is about putting out the fire of the public deficit.

– Gross fixed capital formation is usually more a consequence of the resuscitation of the activity, than a way to relaunch the economy. It is desirable, this time, that the construction of houses does not fall apart as it has done in the previous ‘boom’. But it is also necessary that the banking sector adjusts everything necessary, with the recognition of losses in its balance sheets and the consequent mergers, so that loans are eventually channeled to the productive sector.

– We have, therefore, the trade balance. Exports have been what have allowed us to get out of the hole of the crisis in 2010, although now they grow modestly. And we are an extraordinarily powerful country in this field and very competent. We just have to be somewhat more competitive. We are big horticultural producers, we have a tourism industry of the most powerful in the world, and we are also very good in non-chemical manufactures, renewable energy industry, etc. It is therefore to encourage these industries abroad.

Fostering the “Spain” brand is a good initiative. Promote exports with the activities of ICEX, our embassies and commercial services around the world, return to pre-finance exports, promote the R & D & i of export companies, etc … But, of course, without cheating! It is not the Ibex 35 companies alone that must be supported, but also the SMEs. It is not about that for each action it is necessary to summon those of always, so that they leave in the photo and remain happy. It is not, in short, the usual for the usual. What it is about is to help, encourage and push forward the best we have that are the Spanish entrepreneurs who know perfectly what to do, because they have done it many times and they know more than anyone else.

Now, if we continue to worry only about the savings banks, the 4 banks on duty and the 5 builders that have helped the nonsense that we live, we will be using firemen to the arsonists. And that’s not what we need!

Stored in: Economy, Finance, Markets, Politics, Uncategorized

We are actually bailing out bankers, businessmen and politicians

I do not know if someone is taking care to pick up what is happening, not from the informative point of view of what happens but from the perspective of what is not news because it does not happen.

We have already some very hard years in which all, the most and the least, we are tightening the belt. Meanwhile, with our money or our future and that of our children and grandchildren, banks and other companies are saved as well as entire countries. But no, make no mistake, what we are saving is also bankers or bankers, businessmen and politicians from those banks, companies and countries. And, most of these, continue so happy, so worthy and face being victims of something whose origin has been imposed or ignored.

Well no, it is not like that. The great majority is directly guilty by action, omission or thought.

Banquero Forges3

Let’s see the bankers (almost all bankers, but good). They freely decided to loan mortgages and loans to the applicants. Moreover, they pushed millions of families to buy a second house, mortgaging the first one as well. They gave loans and credits to promoters with the guarantee of land (in many cases rustic), which now are not worth even for rustic. To top it off, they “canned” those potentially delinquent loans and credits with other AAA loans or loans and “settled” them to other banks or to final investors, as if the whole were solvent. And it has not been! But, neither you nor me asked us what these risks seemed to us. And yet, we rescue them now directly or indirectly. And the bankers at the front, continue and collect millionaire salaries in $ o €, as well as the members of their boards of directors. To any of us, for less than that they would throw us out and with a bonus, but in the ass! Why do not governments, central banks or prosecutors act against them? Why, by the way, are we also rescuing its shareholders?

The entrepreneurs Some (enough of the real estate sector in our country), in the time of easy money, took on credit money to buy shares of the companies they ran. Then they indebted the companies themselves to pay dividends, which also reached them to accumulate and / or continue buying more shares, and so on: the rich dividend and society now made foxes!

And what politicians? As accumulating sovereign debt, increasing the deficit and the number of highways, AVEs, airports, etc. And, also, using the previous two to inject encouragement and joy ($ o €), finance public works and encourage the growth of “wealth” (real estate in Spain and furniture in other countries) of the four tarts on duty. And, the same, clinging to the charges and seeing how to win the next elections, while even some laugh at the world doing the “bunga-bunga”.

Ladies and gentlemen, a little decency and more dignity. Acknowledge their mistakes, go home, do not collect millions for doing it and give way to others with new ideas and more scruples. There are, believe me!

And, to those who come, regulate the activity of those who are rescued. Thank you.


Tags: bankers, bankers, loans, mortgages, politicians, rescue | Stored in: Uncategorized

There is no Policy in “the Euro Zone”, only economy.

It stunned me so much to see that every day we talk almost exclusively about Economy and almost nothing about Politics, as we refer to the Euro Zone when we should say Europe. And when we talk about Economy, we refer to GDP, Politics refers to employment and unemployment, the Euro Zone to sovereign debt in the PIGS and the ECB, and Europe was a project, which for the time being is closed.

And I understand that it is so. Most of the politicians we have think of being (re) elected to govern, in the way they explain in their short-term electoral programs and not with great ideas about the long (and very) long term future. Governing, in the sense of managing or directing, is a task without doubt necessary, but more important is to govern in the sense of directing, of guiding a nation looking to the future in a sustainable way, anticipating the really critical long-term issues, which are: education, health and culture, that is, the foundations for democratic freedom and justice, which will form the model of society we want for our descendants.

This confusion between means and ends, between the policy of small things (complex at times, no doubt) and that of long-term vision, has led Europe, to be referred to as “the Euro Zone”, as an economic space common to a few countries, where the key is their currency and the transactions between them. And no, the Euro is another instrument in the construction of Europe that founders foreseen: Adenauer, Gasperi, Schuman and Monnet.

Europe is a political project that has not been consolidated due to the incapacity of the governors to manage properly and their ability to continue confusing the terms. And within Europe, the ECB is an institution that must ensure that there is a common monetary policy. And today, it seems that he assumes the role of de facto EU presidency. What horror and what a pity!

We urgently need politicians with a vision, that there are some, who take the reins and lead a political project of true union, because if Europe does not have a future, and little its member countries.

The confidence of people and markets will only be achieved in a sustained manner when politicians, or some leader, explain to us what they are going to do, how they are going to do it and, above all, why and why they do it once. have started. Today they only announce that they raise a tax, lend billions of euros to banks, reduce the deficit, diminish hope and change laws by decree or just because. And, the next day, the same: nothing.

As a priest friend says: ” Without ideas, there are only stones “! This expression collects very well what has happened in the world and Spain during the years of the “boom”.

IPhone 5 did not come out, of course!

Those of Apple in Cupertino, be it Steve Jobs or this Tim Cook, do not cease to amaze the world. They have been generating in the last weeks a huge expectation with the announcement that, finally, they have not announced: the launching of iPhone 5! And, why have not they announced it? Well, simply, because they are ready. The reasons, among others, are:

– For a few months, Android has gained market share continuously in the US. It’s Google!

– Blackberry (RIM) was being the subject of interested statements about whether a large investor was entering and betting on the Playbook (tablet)

– Amazon has just announced the launch of the Kindle Fire (it almost sounds like 5 – “five”) at a price below the cost, they say.

– In addition, the iPhone 5 works with 4G networks, and there is no deployment (coverage) available for now.

– The iPhone 4S, which they have announced, contains everything from the iPhone 5 (except the 4G): the dual-core chip A5 extra fast (x2) and with an impressive graphic resolution; a new camera (8 mega pixels); video with full HD 1080 recording; and “Siri”, a voice assistant that allows to give voice instructions to the smartphone; and, in addition, brings the new iOS5 operating system. He just needs to make the house and iron

But, they have done well, lower prices, increase the benefits and allow the iPhone 4S to continue selling before launching the 5. If launched, the first buyers would be the current owners of 4. They prefer that, with all these improvements and the sale in promotion with the Sprint operator in USA, more units are sold and thus prepare the ground for the launch of the iPhone 5, when there is 4G network. In addition, launching an expensive product, now, with which it is falling would not be very successful commercially.

It is a listed company, the second largest in the NYSE stock market capitalization, and they know what they are up to. They prefer to go to “tran-tran”, and overwhelm competitors. When they can they will launch it, and they will continue to maintain that impressive sales quota of 50% with the iPhone. The action fell dramatically yesterday when the “no-ad” was announced, then it went up helped by Bernanke, and now in heaven is the limit if it accompanies them-once again-luck.

Google, RIM and Amazon do not have it easy. The price war and the comparison of benefits begin. An inventive hardware manufacturer against a powerful search engine, a business communication wizard that makes BBerries and a monster of online sales.

Can you imagine, for a moment, that the 4 were merged?

If so, turn off and let’s go!

Stored in: Uncategorized

Europe is not the problem, it is the solution!

s, months, weeks, days and hours of this long crisis pass, fortunately, the prophecy is not fulfilled. Neither America, nor Greece, nor Ireland, nor Portugal, nor Italy, nor Spain have gone bankrupt. And because? Well simply because it is not possible. And it is not possible, because this would mean the bankruptcy of all Europe, including Germany itself, which always seems immune.

I believe that Germany, and its politicians, have recently forgotten what Europe is from the macroeconomic point of view. If we look at Table A, we will see that the European Union of the 27 represents 29.3% of the average world GDP of the last 5 years (2006-2010), equaling in weight to the United States of America (29.5%) , and still above Asia (23.4%), which includes China and Japan. Thus, the EU is an economic power that, in these delicate moments of crisis, shows itself as a region frightened by the atavistic memory of some nationalisms, especially in Germany, that live with anguish past epochs that they have not overcome. Meanwhile, the United States uses all the mechanisms at its disposal to reduce its problems, including unemployment, as would any region that makes up a State.

The Germans consider our unemployment, ours, and the GDP of the EU, theirs. If they do not want to assume what it means to be part of the European Union, let them go! we are the ones who want to stay (26). In addition, having breached 14 times the Stability and Growth Pact (PEC), we could have thrown out.

But what the German politicians, the Merkel and their partisan citizens, have not calculated is what Germany would be if they were not in the EU and did not benefit from its beneficial institutional instruments: Euro, Internal Market, Schengen, BCE, etc. Well, nothing, a country with a good GDP, but with hardly any relative importance in front of the powers with which it wishes to rub shoulders in the world.

In Table B, the data in Table A are collected by segregating Germany and China. Thus, we see that the relative weight of Germany, in that case, would be only 6% of world GDP, like China today, but without its growth potential. I know very well that this calculation is not very academic, or not at all academic, because it does not take into account that Germany’s contribution to EU GDP is important from many other economic, social, etc. points of view. But even so, and for didactic purposes, I think you understand what I mean, right?

We are looking in terror at Greece, which only represents 1.6% of EU-27 GDP and 0.48% of world GDP, when its non-rescue could jeopardize the 29.3% that the EU represents, achieved since the beginning of the construction of Europe. These Germans and Merkel are crazy!

Lately the European nationalists, and some more ignorant of that claiber, discuss ruddy issues about whether or not Eurobonds can be issued, about whether the ECB can do it, or not, etc. The Treaty of the Union contains all the mechanisms to make this possible. Thus, among others, article 105.1 says:

” The main objective of the ESCB [European Central Bank] will be to maintain price stability. Without prejudice to this objective, the ESCB shall support the general economic policies of the Community in order to contribute to the achievement of the Community objectives set out in Article 2. “

It refers to those ” general economic policies of the Community ” necessary, also and above all, to get out of this absurd but dangerous situation.

In addition, we must remember that the Treaty of the Union, in its art. 2, it also says:

” The Community shall have the mission of promoting, through the establishment of a common market and economic and monetary union and through the implementation of the common policies or actions referred to in Articles 3 and 3 A, a harmonious and balanced development of economic activities throughout the Community, sustainable and non-inflationary growth that respects the environment, a high degree of convergence of economic performance, a high level of employment and social protection, the raising of standards and quality of life, economic and social cohesion and solidarity among the Member States . “

That is to say, that “a sustainable development, a high level of employment, economic and social cohesion” , of course, can not be achieved without ” solidarity among the member states” referred to in the Treaty, and which today shines through your absence.

With your lordships, the MEPs and the parliamentarians of each European nation, the Treaty will be read with interest (many for the first time), take it seriously and act with the spirit that encouraged its construction in 1957 with the Treaty of Rome, we would have a lot of livestock and maybe a more proactive and positive attitude on the part of everyone, that would encourage us to recover the lost confidence (even to the ” markets “, that ” bicha “)

Of course, meanwhile: they talk, they make dangerous statements, they distribute demagogic slop, they charge a “pasture” and they do nothing more than denounce all those in Europe who work for a better world for our sons and daughters, who are or will Be European

Tags: Germany, Europe, GDP, Treaty of the Union | Stored in: Uncategorized

«Previous entries Subsequent entries »

About me

echo-society-anonymous I was born in 1955. I started writing in this blog with a friend who decided to get on his own a couple of years ago. Now I write it myself. We wanted to talk about economics only to dedicate ourselves to entrepreneurs or influential people in it. However, the crisis has caused the economy and politics to intermingle and that we were supposed to know something about economics. we ceased to be useful for society, since what we knew was false or not entirely true. So I’ve decided to write what I like and what you like. Blogs of 20minutes Mara dresses and fits # The collections with which to show your Gay Pride 1

Fashion is like the Spanish, is aimed at a bombing. What’s football World Cup? T-shirts …

There is the ready that knows everything # Where does the combination of vodka and orange juice known as ‘screwdriver’ come from? 0

In Spanish it is known as a ‘screwdriver’ but internationally it is called with the name …

Love, sex and other delusions # The World of sexual abuse 6

I do not know if you have seen on Facebook a video that is circulating these days about how maybe the …

In search of a second chance # Sarah Connor, abandoned and run over while pregnant 1

Her name is Sarah Connor, who is a fighter’s name, a strong woman who survives against the wind …

Reality Blog Show # MasterChef makes a trap for Mario Sandoval, who gets out of the way as he can 2

Mario Sandoval, thinking that they were eliminating him and Jordi, looking at him … disturbing. ATTENTION: Spoilers. TO…

+ see the rest of 20minutos blogs

Recent comments

  • #The racism of Spanish nationalism in Mas no applaud more
  • panchenko in Mas no applaud more
  • Julian Martinez in Mas does not applaud more
  • panchenko in Mas no applaud more
  • Julian Martinez in Mas does not applaud more
  • panchenko in Mas no applaud more
  • Julian Martinez in Mas does not applaud more
  • panchenko in Mas no applaud more
  • Julian Martinez in Mas does not applaud more
  • panchenko in Mas no applaud more


city ​​councils aznar bail out berlusconi Bárcenas caixa savings banks Catalonia communities constitution cospedal crisis debt economy Spain state euro europe faine fitch fmi g20 Government greece jams maradona merkel montoro moody s More palace of the magdalena GDP political politics pp psoe rajoy while recession uk sarkozy standard poor s european union shoemaker zp